Shellbrook No. 493

Next 7 daysExtreme89%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late April – late May
Record year: 2002411
Trend: −8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +39%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	36	9
2002	411	52
2003	22	8
2004	16	3
2005	78	43
2006	27	11
2007	9	1
2008	11	3
2009	30	8
2010	28	11
2011	21	7
2012	3	3
2013	33	33
2014	25	25
2015	47	47
2016	19	19
2017	29	29
2018	202	413
2019	24	33
2020	12	21
2021	28	43
2022	22	30
2023	18	35
2024	12	32
2025	27	55
2026	22	141

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.7
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~2.5

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun8°

Mon7°

Tue7°

Wed2°

Thu4°

Fri2°

Sat−1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~2.5 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.6 expected · usual 0.8

likely 0.3–2.8 · usual 0.0–1.3

Season

Starts ~3 May
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – mid October

Onset: early May
Peak: early May
End: mid October

Critical windows

late April – late May
39% of annual activity
mid June – early July
34% of annual activity
early October – late October
11% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −8%/10Raw: +39%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 4.7× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

13

2002
411
16× the normal annual activity
peak 38× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks early
2005
78
3.1× the normal annual activity
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2007
9
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2008
11
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2009
29
season ended 8 weeks early
2015
47
peak 2.9× stronger than normal
2017
29
season began 4 weeks early
2018
202
8.1× the normal annual activity
peak 19× stronger than normal
season ended 22 weeks early
2021
28
season began 19 weeks late
2023
18
season ended 8 weeks late
2024
12
season began 23 weeks late
2025
27
season began 18 weeks late
2026
22
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson