Piapot 75

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201227
Trend: −23%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	26	9
2002	12	4
2003	2	0
2004	1	1
2005	4	0
2006	2	0
2007	2	0
2008	2	2
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	0
2012	27	27
2013	7	7
2014	3	3
2015	4	4
2016	1	1
2017	9	9
2018	13	17
2019	3	5
2020	1	1
2021	6	11
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	2	3
2025	0	0
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

This year is more active than normal↑
A dry month (14 mm)↑
Dry air (55%)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – mid October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: mid October

Critical windows

mid April – late May
75% of annual activity
mid October – early November
15% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −23%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.20). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.18).

Unusual years

13

2001
26
10× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
2002
12
4.9× the normal annual activity
peak 7.4× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2004
2
season began 2 weeks early
2010
2
season began 2 weeks early
2012
27
11× the normal annual activity
peak 27× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2014
3
season ended 20 weeks early
2016
1
season ended 23 weeks early
2017
9
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
2018
13
5.3× the normal annual activity
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
2019
3
season began 2 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2020
1
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 14 weeks early
2021
6
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season ended 22 weeks early
2024
2
season ended 23 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson