Bengough No. 40

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – mid May
Record year: 20177
Trend: −45%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	0
2002	1	0
2003	2	1
2004	1	0
2005	1	0
2006	2	3
2007	1	1
2008	1	1
2009	1	0
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	0	0
2013	1	1
2014	1	1
2015	2	2
2016	2	2
2017	7	7
2018	0	0
2019	0	0
2020	0	0
2021	0	1
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	0	0
2025	1	1
2026	4	7

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Fires where there usually are none

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 1.8
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
A dry month (11 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun11°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed6°

Thu3°

Fri2°

Sat2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.1–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~29 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – late October

Onset: late March
Peak: late March
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – mid May
27% of annual activity
mid March – early April
23% of annual activity
mid October – early November
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −45%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.92). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.004): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2013
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season began 11 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2014
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season began 28 weeks late
2015
2
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
2016
2
peak 9.6× stronger than normal
season ended 30 weeks early
2017
7
6.4× the normal annual activity
peak 19× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 24 weeks early
2025
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season began 17 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2026
4
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 9.6× stronger than normal
season began 24 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson