Lajord No. 128

Next 7 daysLow6%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – early June
Record year: 200562
Trend: −23%/ 10significant · on raw data: −2%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	28	9
2002	26	6
2003	5	7
2004	7	4
2005	62	42
2006	6	9
2007	14	8
2008	5	3
2009	4	2
2010	15	8
2011	5	5
2012	1	1
2013	26	26
2014	22	22
2015	42	42
2016	24	24
2017	17	17
2018	2	13
2019	5	9
2020	24	62
2021	2	6
2022	1	3
2023	12	21
2024	1	3
2025	0	0
2026	0	7

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
A dry month (13 mm)↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri3°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–1.6 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Critical windows

mid April – early June
68% of annual activity
mid October – early November
18% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −23%/10Raw: −2%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.44). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.12).

Unusual years

7

2002
26
season ended 15 weeks early
2010
15
season ended 16 weeks early
2017
17
season ended 20 weeks early
2018
2
season ended 21 weeks early
2019
5
season ended 13 weeks early
2021
2
season began 11 weeks late
2023
12
season ended 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson