Laurier No. 38

Next 7 daysLow2%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – mid November
Record year: 202014
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +33%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	1
2002	3	0
2003	3	0
2004	2	0
2005	3	2
2006	3	0
2007	6	3
2008	6	3
2009	2	0
2010	3	1
2011	3	0
2012	0	0
2013	7	7
2014	13	13
2015	6	6
2016	12	12
2017	6	6
2018	3	14
2019	0	0
2020	14	30
2021	2	3
2022	0	1
2023	2	2
2024	3	3
2025	2	3
2026	13	30

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 14.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
A dry month (7 mm)↑

Sun11°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed5°

Thu3°

Fri3°

Sat2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.8 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~11 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid October
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late September – mid November
52% of annual activity
mid April – early May
28% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +33%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 9.2× its earlier level (p 0.010). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

12

2013
7
season ended 4 weeks early
2014
13
4.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks early
2015
6
season began 25 weeks late
2016
12
4.0× the normal annual activity
season began 22 weeks late
2017
6
season ended 7 weeks early
2018
3
season began 17 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2020
14
4.7× the normal annual activity
peak 6.5× stronger than normal
season ended 29 weeks early
2021
2
season began 27 weeks late
2023
2
season ended 28 weeks early
2024
3
season began 27 weeks late
2025
2
season began 18 weeks late
2026
13
4.3× the normal annual activity
season began 23 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson