Hart Butte No. 11

Next 7 daysLow2%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – early May
Record year: 200113
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	13	5
2002	2	0
2003	1	0
2004	1	0
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	1	0
2009	4	2
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	1	1
2013	0	0
2014	3	3
2015	11	11
2016	3	3
2017	0	0
2018	1	1
2019	0	0
2020	3	3
2021	0	0
2022	0	0
2023	3	3
2024	5	10
2025	3	4
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun11°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed6°

Thu3°

Fri2°

Sat2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late October

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid April
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – early May
30% of annual activity
mid May – late May
20% of annual activity
mid September – mid October
16% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.22). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

11

2001
13
11× the normal annual activity
peak 50× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2009
5
peak 16× stronger than normal
2012
1
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
season began 2 weeks early
season ended 30 weeks early
2014
3
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season began 28 weeks late
2015
11
peak 46× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early
2016
3
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
season began 2 weeks late
2018
1
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 19 weeks early
2020
3
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season began 2 weeks late
season ended 22 weeks early
2023
3
peak 14× stronger than normal
season began 22 weeks late
2024
5
peak 19× stronger than normal
season began 2 weeks late
2025
3
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season began 20 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson