Wellington No. 97

Next 7 daysLow9%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – late May
Record year: 201541
Trend: −35%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	15	8
2002	4	2
2003	7	5
2004	9	6
2005	28	20
2006	5	4
2007	23	13
2008	18	10
2009	4	5
2010	7	3
2011	4	1
2012	9	9
2013	12	12
2014	15	15
2015	41	41
2016	14	14
2017	13	13
2018	0	3
2019	2	6
2020	4	9
2021	1	2
2022	8	12
2023	2	7
2024	0	1
2025	3	6
2026	3	7

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 5.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.8
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 4 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
A dry month (13 mm)↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri3°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.6 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.1–0.7 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~11 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late October

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid October
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – late May
45% of annual activity
late September – late October
35% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −35%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.82). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.010): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2005
28
peak 6.6× stronger than normal
2007
23
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
2014
15
season began 23 weeks late
2015
41
peak 5.5× stronger than normal
2017
13
season ended 22 weeks early
2019
2
season ended 25 weeks early
2022
8
season began 21 weeks late
2023
2
season began 24 weeks late
2025
3
season began 26 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson