The Gap No. 39

Next 7 daysLow3%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early October – mid November
Record year: 201514
Trend: −37%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	11	3
2002	3	0
2003	2	1
2004	1	0
2005	6	2
2006	2	1
2007	2	1
2008	5	4
2009	2	0
2010	2	1
2011	5	2
2012	2	2
2013	0	0
2014	5	5
2015	14	14
2016	5	5
2017	2	2
2018	4	4
2019	0	0
2020	0	1
2021	0	2
2022	2	3
2023	0	0
2024	2	3
2025	0	0
2026	2	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun11°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed6°

Thu3°

Fri2°

Sat2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~18 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: mid October
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early October – mid November
47% of annual activity
mid April – mid May
26% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −37%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.65). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.09).

Unusual years

13

2001
11
season ended 4 weeks late
2002
3
season ended 4 weeks early
2004
1
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
2
season ended 3 weeks late
2010
2
season began 3 weeks early
2012
2
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2015
14
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
2016
5
season began 3 weeks early
2017
2
season ended 25 weeks early
2018
4
season began 6 weeks late
2022
2
season began 25 weeks late
2024
2
season began 26 weeks late
2026
2
season began 15 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson