Muscowpetung 80

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late May
Record year: 201323
Trend: −23%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	0
2002	6	2
2003	4	5
2004	4	2
2005	8	4
2006	5	2
2007	1	0
2008	4	3
2009	1	0
2010	1	0
2011	4	2
2012	17	17
2013	23	23
2014	10	10
2015	0	0
2016	5	5
2017	13	13
2018	8	22
2019	5	12
2020	1	2
2021	0	1
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	0	4
2025	1	1
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 10 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (15 mm)↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.0

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – early August

Onset: early April
Peak: early May
End: early August

Critical windows

late March – late May
83% of annual activity
mid October – late October
5% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −23%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.58). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2001
2
season ended 19 weeks late
2003
4
season ended 10 weeks late
2007
1
season ended 19 weeks late
2009
1
season ended 11 weeks late
2010
1
season ended 18 weeks late
2013
23
peak 7.1× stronger than normal
2014
10
season ended 16 weeks late
2018
8
season ended 20 weeks late
2025
1
season began 22 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson