Touchwood No. 248

Next 7 daysLow14%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – early November
Record year: 200250
Trend: −12%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +46%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	9	1
2002	50	20
2003	16	9
2004	2	0
2005	13	6
2006	10	9
2007	25	17
2008	12	9
2009	9	8
2010	16	11
2011	12	10
2012	2	2
2013	9	9
2014	14	14
2015	9	9
2016	12	12
2017	17	17
2018	3	12
2019	4	14
2020	14	30
2021	12	24
2022	0	1
2023	14	25
2024	16	36
2025	3	9
2026	0	2

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 1.1

likely 0.0–3.2 · usual 0.0–1.4

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~11 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: mid October
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late September – early November
39% of annual activity
late April – late May
25% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −12%/10Raw: +46%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.10). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

10

2002
50
4.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2003
16
season began 15 weeks late
2004
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2007
25
season began 13 weeks late
2012
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 21 weeks late
2018
3
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 23 weeks late
2019
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 23 weeks early
2023
14
season began 10 weeks late
2024
16
season began 9 weeks late
2025
3
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson