Kellross No. 247

Next 7 daysLow10%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201776
Trend: −22%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +37%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	73	23
2002	21	2
2003	51	26
2004	8	7
2005	35	19
2006	36	22
2007	33	17
2008	47	23
2009	35	14
2010	27	16
2011	11	6
2012	18	18
2013	13	13
2014	28	28
2015	35	35
2016	22	22
2017	76	76
2018	40	80
2019	54	106
2020	53	97
2021	39	81
2022	11	17
2023	16	31
2024	17	36
2025	9	15
2026	13	32

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
A dry month (14 mm)↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.7

likely 0.0–2.2 · usual 0.0–0.9

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – mid October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
60% of annual activity
late September – late October
25% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −22%/10Raw: +37%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 3.3× its earlier level (p 0.010). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.36).

Unusual years

12

2002
21
season ended 12 weeks early
2004
8
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2005
35
season ended 15 weeks early
2009
35
season ended 18 weeks early
2010
27
season ended 16 weeks early
2012
18
season began 4 weeks early
2014
28
season ended 19 weeks early
2015
35
season ended 21 weeks early
2019
54
season ended 20 weeks early
2022
11
season began 5 weeks late
2023
16
season ended 9 weeks late
2026
13
season ended 14 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson