Big River No. 555

Next 7 daysModerate32%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early June – early July
Record year: 2002868
Trend: +5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +60%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	17	0
2002	867	72
2003	13	0
2004	13	0
2005	13	0
2006	18	2
2007	14	2
2008	13	0
2009	19	3
2010	14	1
2011	14	2
2012	1	1
2013	6	6
2014	2	2
2015	39	39
2016	88	88
2017	3	3
2018	18	34
2019	26	56
2020	25	45
2021	41	90
2022	31	59
2023	5	21
2024	18	35
2025	20	40
2026	7	27

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun7°

Mon7°

Tue6°

Wed2°

Thu5°

Fri1°

Sat−1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.3 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1.1 expected · usual 2.7

likely 0.0–6.6 · usual 0.0–4.6

Season

Starts ~17 May
Peak ~21 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid May – late September

Onset: mid May
Peak: late June
End: late September

Critical windows

early June – early July
68% of annual activity
early November – mid November
3% of annual activity
mid July – late July
3% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +5%/10Raw: +60%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 7.1× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

12

2002
867
51× the normal annual activity
peak 215× stronger than normal
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 19 weeks early
2013
6
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 30 weeks late
2015
39
2.3× the normal annual activity
season began 21 weeks late
2016
88
5.2× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks early
2017
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2019
26
season ended 6 weeks late
2020
25
season began 10 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks early
2021
41
2.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks early
2022
31
season ended 6 weeks early
2023
5
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2025
20
season began 9 weeks early
2026
7
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks early
season ended 21 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson