Excel No. 71

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – late May
Record year: 201721
Trend: −21%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +22%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	2
2002	3	0
2003	6	3
2004	1	1
2005	3	4
2006	3	2
2007	3	2
2008	2	0
2009	2	0
2010	2	1
2011	6	3
2012	2	2
2013	0	0
2014	9	9
2015	10	10
2016	15	15
2017	21	21
2018	0	0
2019	1	2
2020	6	6
2021	6	12
2022	0	0
2023	1	1
2024	2	4
2025	0	3
2026	2	2

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Fires where there usually are none

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.9
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 3 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
A dry month (18 mm)↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.1–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~17 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid October

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid May
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – late May
69% of annual activity
early October – late October
16% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −21%/10Raw: +22%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.18). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.22).

Unusual years

11

2003
6
season began 4 weeks late
2011
6
season ended 18 weeks early
2014
9
season ended 19 weeks early
2015
10
season ended 20 weeks early
2016
15
peak 7.5× stronger than normal
2017
21
peak 11× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2019
1
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 19 weeks early
2020
6
season ended 21 weeks early
2023
1
season began 11 weeks late
2024
2
season began 18 weeks late
2026
2
season began 17 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson