Gordon 86

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late May
Record year: 201011
Trend: −32%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	1
2002	7	2
2003	2	2
2004	2	0
2005	4	0
2006	3	0
2007	2	1
2008	3	0
2009	2	0
2010	11	5
2011	2	0
2012	5	5
2013	9	9
2014	6	6
2015	8	8
2016	2	2
2017	0	0
2018	2	4
2019	5	7
2020	0	0
2021	3	4
2022	2	2
2023	7	30
2024	0	0
2025	0	0
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 11 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (15 mm)↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.0

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – late June

Onset: early April
Peak: early May
End: late June

Critical windows

late March – late May
87% of annual activity
mid September – early October
5% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −32%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.22). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.13).

Unusual years

6

2014
6
season began 3 weeks late
2018
2
season began 4 weeks late
2019
5
season began 4 weeks late
2021
3
season began 4 weeks late
2022
2
season began 3 weeks late
2023
7
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson