Montreal Lake 106B

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late May
Record year: 202511
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +51%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5	1
2002	5	1
2003	1	0
2004	0	0
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	1	2
2009	4	2
2010	1	0
2011	1	1
2012	1	1
2013	2	2
2014	0	0
2015	10	10
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	2	5
2019	2	8
2020	1	3
2021	0	1
2022	0	0
2023	4	4
2024	2	4
2025	11	21
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 10 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

No rain expected in the coming days↑
A dry month (19 mm)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon8°

Tue6°

Wed2°

Thu5°

Fri0°

Sat−2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.0

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late May

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: late May

Critical windows

late March – late May
94% of annual activity
mid October – late October
3% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +51%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.11). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.88).

Unusual years

15

2001
5
peak 8.6× stronger than normal
2002
5
peak 7.6× stronger than normal
2003
1
season ended 20 weeks late
2004
1
season ended 21 weeks late
2005
1
season ended 20 weeks late
2006
1
season ended 19 weeks late
2007
1
season ended 21 weeks late
2008
1
season ended 21 weeks late
2009
4
peak 8.8× stronger than normal
2010
1
season ended 20 weeks late
2011
1
season ended 21 weeks late
2015
10
11× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
2018
2
season ended 21 weeks late
2023
4
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
2025
11
12× the normal annual activity
peak 26× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson