Surprise Valley No. 9

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – mid October
Record year: 20076
Trend: −48%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	0
2002	2	0
2003	1	0
2004	1	0
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	6	3
2008	1	0
2009	1	0
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	0	0
2013	3	3
2014	1	1
2015	0	0
2016	0	0
2017	4	4
2018	0	0
2019	1	1
2020	0	0
2021	0	0
2022	0	0
2023	1	1
2024	1	1
2025	0	0
2026	1	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (10 mm)↑
Dry air (53%)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun11°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed6°

Thu3°

Fri2°

Sat2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~4 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early October
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late September – mid October
32% of annual activity
mid April – mid May
16% of annual activity
late August – early September
15% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −48%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.63). ODLAR's record changes level in 2014 (p 0.01): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2007
6
6.3× the normal annual activity
peak 21× stronger than normal
season began 13 weeks late
2013
3
peak 14× stronger than normal
season began 23 weeks late
2014
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 29 weeks early
2017
4
4.0× the normal annual activity
peak 19× stronger than normal
season began 18 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2019
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early
2023
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 18 weeks early
2024
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 31 weeks early
2026
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 28 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson