Brokenshell No. 68

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: last week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – mid May
Record year: 201513
Trend: −41%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	9	2
2002	3	0
2003	7	8
2004	1	0
2005	3	2
2006	5	3
2007	2	2
2008	5	3
2009	2	1
2010	2	0
2011	2	0
2012	3	3
2013	3	3
2014	2	2
2015	13	13
2016	5	5
2017	6	6
2018	0	1
2019	0	0
2020	6	15
2021	2	3
2022	2	4
2023	0	1
2024	0	0
2025	0	0
2026	4	13

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

This year is more active than normal↑
A dry month (13 mm)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri3°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.2 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~26 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: late April
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – mid May
42% of annual activity
late September – early November
28% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −41%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.88). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.09).

Unusual years

9

2003
7
season began 4 weeks late
2012
3
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 28 weeks early
2013
3
season began 23 weeks late
2014
2
season began 4 weeks late
2015
13
peak 9.6× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2020
6
season ended 23 weeks early
2021
2
season ended 27 weeks early
2022
2
season began 24 weeks late
2026
4
season began 25 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson