Little Red River 106C

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 200564
Trend: −23%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +6%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	38	13
2002	6	1
2003	5	3
2004	20	10
2005	64	22
2006	6	2
2007	26	14
2008	2	2
2009	14	10
2010	9	6
2011	7	3
2012	4	4
2013	29	29
2014	5	5
2015	32	32
2016	1	1
2017	5	5
2018	4	5
2019	0	1
2020	4	8
2021	13	31
2022	1	2
2023	1	1
2024	7	14
2025	60	111
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

This year is more active than normal↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun8°

Mon7°

Tue7°

Wed2°

Thu4°

Fri2°

Sat−1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late September

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late September

Critical windows

mid April – late May
82% of annual activity
late September – late October
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −23%/10Raw: +6%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 1.00). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.14).

Unusual years

11

2001
38
season ended 17 weeks late
2003
5
season ended 15 weeks late
2004
20
season began 3 weeks late
2005
64
10× the normal annual activity
peak 15× stronger than normal
2008
2
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 18 weeks late
2010
9
season began 3 weeks early
2013
29
season ended 19 weeks late
2016
1
season began 3 weeks late
2018
4
season began 25 weeks late
season ended 19 weeks late
2021
13
season ended 18 weeks late
2025
60
9.5× the normal annual activity
peak 12× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson