Longlaketon No. 219

Next 7 daysLow6%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 2015117
Trend: −3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +47%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	20	4
2002	13	2
2003	12	6
2004	9	2
2005	29	14
2006	12	3
2007	28	15
2008	22	15
2009	35	18
2010	24	13
2011	15	11
2012	7	7
2013	10	10
2014	34	34
2015	117	117
2016	41	41
2017	50	50
2018	45	87
2019	12	30
2020	32	61
2021	16	31
2022	17	34
2023	12	22
2024	6	21
2025	8	16
2026	3	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.4

likely 0.0–1.6 · usual 0.0–0.9

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
55% of annual activity
late September – early November
26% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −3%/10Raw: +47%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 4.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.65).

Unusual years

13

2001
20
season ended 3 weeks late
2004
9
season ended 4 weeks late
2007
28
season began 4 weeks late
2009
35
season ended 14 weeks early
2011
15
season began 3 weeks late
2014
34
season ended 23 weeks early
2015
117
6.9× the normal annual activity
peak 7.4× stronger than normal
2016
41
season ended 3 weeks late
2019
12
season ended 21 weeks early
2022
17
season began 11 weeks late
2023
12
season began 13 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks late
2024
6
season began 19 weeks late
2026
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson