Buckland No. 491

Next 7 daysModerate33%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 2002218
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +23%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	2
2002	218	21
2003	4	0
2004	3	0
2005	13	11
2006	4	1
2007	5	0
2008	4	1
2009	4	2
2010	8	5
2011	4	1
2012	0	0
2013	3	3
2014	3	3
2015	16	16
2016	13	13
2017	6	6
2018	4	9
2019	2	6
2020	3	10
2021	188	369
2022	5	7
2023	12	22
2024	7	16
2025	7	11
2026	1	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun8°

Mon7°

Tue7°

Wed2°

Thu4°

Fri2°

Sat−1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.4 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.4

likely 0.0–1.5 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Starts ~17 May
Peak ~28 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid May – early August

Onset: mid May
Peak: late June
End: early August

Critical windows

mid April – late May
43% of annual activity
mid June – late June
40% of annual activity
mid October – late October
3% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: +23%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 12.3× its earlier level (p 0.006). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.74).

Unusual years

11

2002
218
47× the normal annual activity
peak 104× stronger than normal
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 18 weeks early
2005
13
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
2015
16
3.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 15 weeks early
2016
13
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late
2019
2
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 29 weeks early
2020
3
season ended 10 weeks early
2021
188
40× the normal annual activity
peak 89× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2022
5
season began 10 weeks early
2023
12
season began 6 weeks late
2025
7
season ended 10 weeks late
2026
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks early
season ended 35 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson