Francis No. 127

Next 7 daysModerate39%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – mid November
Record year: 201686
Trend: −29%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +18%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	62	13
2002	9	1
2003	41	22
2004	16	8
2005	83	36
2006	59	32
2007	25	17
2008	23	11
2009	29	13
2010	15	8
2011	6	2
2012	10	10
2013	11	11
2014	52	52
2015	79	79
2016	86	86
2017	32	32
2018	20	40
2019	5	9
2020	31	64
2021	4	8
2022	6	10
2023	25	41
2024	10	28
2025	7	16
2026	8	15

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 3.0
Rank: 21 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
A dry month (13 mm)↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri3°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.3 expected · usual 1.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.4 expected · usual 1.5

likely 0.0–4.4 · usual 0.0–3.8

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~18 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: mid October
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late September – mid November
59% of annual activity
mid April – mid May
27% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −29%/10Raw: +18%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.13). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

15

2002
9
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early
2004
16
season ended 3 weeks late
2005
83
peak 5.4× stronger than normal
2006
59
season began 4 weeks early
2009
29
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
10
season began 7 weeks late
2016
86
season began 3 weeks early
2018
20
season began 4 weeks late
2019
5
season ended 23 weeks early
2020
31
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 5 weeks early
2021
4
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early
2022
6
season began 22 weeks late
2024
10
season began 22 weeks late
2025
7
season began 23 weeks late
2026
8
season began 22 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson