Key West No. 70

Next 7 daysLow18%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201622
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +59%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	2
2002	5	0
2003	3	1
2004	3	1
2005	9	4
2006	6	3
2007	4	0
2008	4	0
2009	3	0
2010	5	3
2011	6	3
2012	2	2
2013	11	11
2014	4	4
2015	17	17
2016	22	22
2017	11	11
2018	7	8
2019	4	7
2020	11	27
2021	6	9
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	13	22
2025	1	1
2026	4	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 15.4×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.9
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 4 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
A dry month (16 mm)↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.5 expected · usual 0.4

likely 0.1–1.2 · usual 0.0–1.1

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~26 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – early November

Onset: early April
Peak: late April
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
45% of annual activity
early October – early November
33% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +59%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 6.8× its earlier level (p 0.05). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.92).

Unusual years

10

2012
2
season ended 26 weeks early
2014
4
season began 3 weeks early
2016
22
4.4× the normal annual activity
peak 6.5× stronger than normal
2017
11
season ended 22 weeks early
2018
7
season began 3 weeks late
2019
4
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 22 weeks early
2021
6
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 6 weeks late
2024
13
peak 5.5× stronger than normal
season began 28 weeks late
2025
1
season began 18 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks early
2026
4
season began 26 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson