Baildon No. 131

Next 7 daysLow6%

Fire season: about 27 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – late May
Record year: 201727
Trend: −21%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +31%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	13	3
2002	7	1
2003	4	2
2004	3	0
2005	18	12
2006	4	0
2007	7	5
2008	5	0
2009	4	0
2010	4	0
2011	7	2
2012	2	2
2013	3	3
2014	6	6
2015	9	9
2016	19	19
2017	27	27
2018	4	12
2019	4	10
2020	9	14
2021	2	3
2022	2	2
2023	1	3
2024	1	2
2025	5	8
2026	2	10

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.4 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Ends ~17 May
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – mid May

Onset: mid October
Peak: early May
End: mid May

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – late May
70% of annual activity
early October – late October
15% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −21%/10Raw: +31%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 4.0× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.19).

Unusual years

13

2002
7
season began 20 weeks late
2005
18
4.3× the normal annual activity
2012
2
season began 24 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2013
3
season began 28 weeks late
2016
19
4.4× the normal annual activity
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 24 weeks late
2017
27
6.3× the normal annual activity
peak 6.3× stronger than normal
season began 13 weeks late
2019
4
season began 27 weeks late
2020
9
season began 25 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2021
2
season began 25 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2023
1
season ended 38 weeks early
2024
1
season began 25 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2025
5
season ended 28 weeks early
2026
2
season ended 8 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson