Canwood No. 494

Next 7 daysExtreme100%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – early June
Record year: 2002136
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	50	12
2002	136	27
2003	28	14
2004	11	1
2005	86	30
2006	30	6
2007	26	5
2008	34	16
2009	74	30
2010	60	25
2011	40	17
2012	17	17
2013	39	39
2014	15	15
2015	39	39
2016	11	11
2017	36	36
2018	23	46
2019	66	113
2020	38	77
2021	34	72
2022	14	34
2023	40	86
2024	41	84
2025	41	90
2026	22	51

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 9.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 9.8
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~4.5

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun8°

Mon8°

Tue8°

Wed3°

Thu4°

Fri2°

Sat−1°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date22

#21 of 26 yearsNormal: 37

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~4.5 expected · usual 0.5

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.1 expected · usual 1.2

likely 0.0–3.9 · usual 0.0–2.1

Season

Starts ~3 May
Peak ~17 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – mid October

Onset: early May
Peak: mid May
End: mid October

Critical windows

mid April – early June
59% of annual activity
mid October – early November
11% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 3.7× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

16

2002
136
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 7.2× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2004
11
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2005
86
peak 3.1× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2009
74
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
2010
60
season began 3 weeks early
2014
15
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 10 weeks early
2015
39
season began 3 weeks early
2016
11
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 13 weeks early
2017
36
season began 3 weeks late
2019
66
season ended 15 weeks early
2020
38
season ended 11 weeks early
2021
34
season began 4 weeks late
2022
14
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2023
40
season began 11 weeks late
2024
41
season began 6 weeks late
2026
22
season began 15 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Canwood No. 494

Next 7 daysExtreme100%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – early June
Record year: 2002136
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	50	12
2002	136	27
2003	28	14
2004	11	1
2005	86	30
2006	30	6
2007	26	5
2008	34	16
2009	74	30
2010	60	25
2011	40	17
2012	17	17
2013	39	39
2014	15	15
2015	39	39
2016	11	11
2017	36	36
2018	23	46
2019	66	113
2020	38	77
2021	34	72
2022	14	34
2023	40	86
2024	41	84
2025	41	90
2026	22	51

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 9.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 9.8
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~4.5

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun8°

Mon8°

Tue8°

Wed3°

Thu4°

Fri2°

Sat−1°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date22

#21 of 26 yearsNormal: 37

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~4.5 expected · usual 0.5

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.1 expected · usual 1.2

likely 0.0–3.9 · usual 0.0–2.1

Season

Starts ~3 May
Peak ~17 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – mid October

Onset: early May
Peak: mid May
End: mid October

Critical windows

mid April – early June
59% of annual activity
mid October – early November
11% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 3.7× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

16

2002
136
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 7.2× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2004
11
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2005
86
peak 3.1× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2009
74
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
2010
60
season began 3 weeks early
2014
15
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 10 weeks early
2015
39
season began 3 weeks early
2016
11
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 13 weeks early
2017
36
season began 3 weeks late
2019
66
season ended 15 weeks early
2020
38
season ended 11 weeks early
2021
34
season began 4 weeks late
2022
14
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2023
40
season began 11 weeks late
2024
41
season began 6 weeks late
2026
22
season began 15 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson