Wreford No. 280

Next 7 daysLow14%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – early November
Record year: 201745
Trend: −11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +56%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	13	0
2002	11	2
2003	13	5
2004	3	1
2005	8	4
2006	6	3
2007	5	0
2008	17	10
2009	8	4
2010	6	3
2011	22	15
2012	11	11
2013	9	9
2014	11	11
2015	38	38
2016	27	27
2017	45	45
2018	13	20
2019	13	24
2020	12	18
2021	5	10
2022	10	19
2023	4	10
2024	2	2
2025	0	0
2026	1	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~18 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: mid October
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late September – early November
53% of annual activity
mid April – late May
36% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −11%/10Raw: +56%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2011 to 5.4× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.17).

Unusual years

9

2002
11
season ended 15 weeks early
2004
3
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
8
season ended 3 weeks late
2013
9
season began 22 weeks late
2015
38
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2017
45
4.1× the normal annual activity
peak 5.6× stronger than normal
2019
13
season ended 27 weeks early
2022
10
season ended 18 weeks early
2024
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson