Sarnia No. 221

Next 7 daysModerate26%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – early November
Record year: 2015132
Trend: −6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +53%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	23	5
2002	12	2
2003	14	4
2004	14	5
2005	34	15
2006	11	3
2007	27	13
2008	22	11
2009	11	3
2010	14	5
2011	10	3
2012	25	25
2013	27	27
2014	17	17
2015	132	132
2016	36	36
2017	41	41
2018	19	35
2019	14	22
2020	25	51
2021	11	25
2022	2	15
2023	2	3
2024	17	31
2025	12	25
2026	6	20

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.6
Usual (median): 0.9
Rank: 10 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.6 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.4 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.1–1.6 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~18 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late October

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid October
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late September – early November
46% of annual activity
mid April – late May
43% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −6%/10Raw: +53%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.5× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.28).

Unusual years

8

2002
12
season ended 8 weeks early
2006
11
season ended 3 weeks late
2015
132
7.8× the normal annual activity
peak 8.3× stronger than normal
2016
36
season ended 3 weeks late
2021
11
season began 3 weeks early
2024
17
season began 19 weeks late
2025
12
season began 27 weeks late
2026
6
season began 12 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson