Tullymet No. 216

Next 7 daysLow7%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 200580
Trend: −16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +56%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	34	9
2002	30	5
2003	53	31
2004	19	7
2005	80	40
2006	30	12
2007	30	19
2008	49	29
2009	31	14
2010	51	30
2011	26	14
2012	29	29
2013	33	33
2014	45	45
2015	56	56
2016	35	35
2017	78	78
2018	20	36
2019	31	64
2020	45	92
2021	51	98
2022	30	55
2023	11	22
2024	7	23
2025	8	14
2026	3	34

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.1 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – mid October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
63% of annual activity
late September – late October
26% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −16%/10Raw: +56%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 2.5× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.26).

Unusual years

13

2002
30
season ended 16 weeks early
2004
19
season ended 18 weeks early
2005
80
season ended 18 weeks early
2006
30
season ended 19 weeks early
2009
31
season ended 8 weeks early
2010
51
season began 3 weeks early
2012
29
season began 3 weeks late
2014
45
season ended 20 weeks early
2016
35
season ended 23 weeks early
2019
31
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 19 weeks early
2022
30
season began 25 weeks late
2024
7
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
2025
8
only 0.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson