Cupar No. 218

Next 7 daysLow14%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 200852
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +58%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	39	9
2002	23	7
2003	9	4
2004	7	3
2005	36	25
2006	25	11
2007	17	7
2008	52	29
2009	14	6
2010	30	14
2011	14	7
2012	22	22
2013	34	34
2014	34	34
2015	40	40
2016	32	32
2017	43	43
2018	34	74
2019	25	62
2020	12	23
2021	17	46
2022	16	30
2023	27	56
2024	7	21
2025	9	22
2026	4	17

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.7

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.7 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.4

likely 0.0–1.5 · usual 0.0–0.6

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
54% of annual activity
late September – early November
35% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +58%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.3× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.29).

Unusual years

7

2002
23
season ended 22 weeks early
2010
30
season began 3 weeks early
2019
25
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 24 weeks early
2021
17
season began 4 weeks early
2024
7
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
2025
9
season began 20 weeks late
2026
4
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 21 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson