Prince Albert No. 461

Next 7 daysVery high60%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – early June
Record year: 200546
Trend: −36%/ 10significant · on raw data: +48%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	17	4
2002	30	9
2003	37	28
2004	16	8
2005	46	30
2006	17	6
2007	14	9
2008	21	7
2009	16	7
2010	9	3
2011	12	4
2012	7	7
2013	11	11
2014	4	4
2015	11	11
2016	12	12
2017	20	20
2018	8	20
2019	8	21
2020	6	19
2021	21	53
2022	13	31
2023	5	7
2024	11	21
2025	16	35
2026	4	13

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.4×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.9
Usual (median): 0.6
Rank: 11 of 26

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~1.7

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun8°

Mon7°

Tue7°

Wed2°

Thu4°

Fri2°

Sat−1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~1.7 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.6 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.3–1.7 · usual 0.0–1.1

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – early June
62% of annual activity
early October – early November
18% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −36%/10Raw: +48%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 2.3× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record changes level in 2010 (p 0.010): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

13

2002
30
peak 2.6× stronger than normal
season ended 7 weeks early
2003
37
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 2.5× stronger than normal
2005
46
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 2.9× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2012
7
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks early
2013
11
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2014
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 23 weeks early
2015
11
season ended 23 weeks early
2019
8
season ended 22 weeks early
2021
21
season began 22 weeks late
2022
13
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks late
2024
11
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
16
season ended 4 weeks early
2026
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson