Pasqua 79

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late May
Record year: 200829
Trend: −17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3	0
2002	2	0
2003	4	2
2004	1	0
2005	5	3
2006	1	2
2007	1	2
2008	29	16
2009	4	3
2010	1	0
2011	1	5
2012	14	14
2013	6	6
2014	8	8
2015	6	6
2016	1	1
2017	1	1
2018	17	28
2019	2	2
2020	0	0
2021	0	0
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	1	1
2025	2	2
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 10 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (14 mm)↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
High fuel load↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.0

Season

Starts ~1 March
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid May

Onset: early March
Peak: mid April
End: mid May

Critical windows

late March – late May
88% of annual activity
mid October – late October
4% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −17%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.29). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.08).

Unusual years

7

2008
29
15× the normal annual activity
peak 28× stronger than normal
2012
14
7.1× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
2014
8
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
2016
1
season ended 9 weeks early
2018
17
8.6× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
2024
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2025
2
season ended 36 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson