Moose Jaw No. 161

Next 7 daysLow9%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – early November
Record year: 201433
Trend: −20%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +21%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	3	0
2004	5	2
2005	14	10
2006	16	7
2007	3	0
2008	7	3
2009	3	1
2010	3	1
2011	3	0
2012	1	1
2013	8	8
2014	33	33
2015	26	26
2016	15	15
2017	12	12
2018	8	13
2019	6	12
2020	4	7
2021	2	4
2022	0	2
2023	0	0
2024	1	3
2025	2	7
2026	4	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun10°

Mon11°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–1.6 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~18 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid October
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid October – early November
38% of annual activity
late April – mid June
34% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −20%/10Raw: +21%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.2× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.06).

Unusual years

12

2006
16
peak 10× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2012
1
season began 15 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2013
8
season began 27 weeks late
2014
33
7.5× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
2015
26
5.9× the normal annual activity
peak 16× stronger than normal
2017
12
season ended 7 weeks late
2018
8
season ended 21 weeks early
2019
6
season began 28 weeks late
2020
4
season ended 23 weeks early
2021
2
season ended 25 weeks early
2024
1
season began 28 weeks late
2026
4
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson