Scott No. 98

Next 7 daysLow10%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 2005107
Trend: −52%/ 10significant · on raw data: −37%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	23	8
2002	7	3
2003	6	3
2004	8	4
2005	107	48
2006	22	14
2007	14	9
2008	2	0
2009	10	5
2010	9	6
2011	2	1
2012	3	3
2013	5	5
2014	12	12
2015	18	18
2016	10	10
2017	7	7
2018	1	1
2019	3	3
2020	0	5
2021	2	3
2022	1	1
2023	0	1
2024	0	0
2025	0	0
2026	10	29

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri3°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.2 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Critical windows

mid April – late May
64% of annual activity
late September – early November
27% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −52%/10Raw: −37%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.06). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2001
23
season ended 17 weeks early
2002
7
season ended 14 weeks early
2004
8
season began 23 weeks late
2005
107
19× the normal annual activity
peak 21× stronger than normal
2010
9
season ended 9 weeks early
2014
12
season began 21 weeks late
2018
1
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2019
3
season ended 26 weeks early
2021
2
season began 6 weeks late
2022
1
season began 25 weeks late
2026
10
season began 23 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson