Redburn No. 130

Next 7 daysLow1%

Fire season: last week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 200620
Trend: −19%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +38%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	1
2002	4	0
2003	2	2
2004	2	1
2005	3	6
2006	20	11
2007	3	0
2008	3	2
2009	3	0
2010	3	2
2011	2	0
2012	2	2
2013	6	6
2014	2	2
2015	12	12
2016	17	17
2017	14	14
2018	9	15
2019	1	1
2020	2	3
2021	2	5
2022	0	2
2023	0	0
2024	1	11
2025	14	36
2026	5	25

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
A dry month (16 mm)↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–0.7 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
50% of annual activity
early October – mid November
34% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −19%/10Raw: +38%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.08). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.11).

Unusual years

17

2002
4
season ended 10 weeks early
2004
2
season ended 3 weeks late
2006
20
7.4× the normal annual activity
peak 15× stronger than normal
2009
3
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
2
season began 12 weeks late
2013
6
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
2014
2
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2015
12
4.5× the normal annual activity
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
2016
17
6.4× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
season began 28 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks late
2017
14
5.3× the normal annual activity
peak 9.0× stronger than normal
2018
9
3.4× the normal annual activity
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2019
1
season ended 25 weeks early
2020
2
season ended 24 weeks early
2021
2
season ended 25 weeks early
2024
1
season began 27 weeks late
2025
14
5.3× the normal annual activity
peak 9.0× stronger than normal
season ended 3 weeks early
2026
5
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson