Lakeland No. 521

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – mid March
Record year: 20219
Trend: −40%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3	1
2002	2	0
2003	1	0
2004	1	0
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	1	0
2009	1	0
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	0	0
2013	0	0
2014	0	0
2015	0	0
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	6	6
2019	0	0
2020	0	1
2021	9	20
2022	0	0
2023	9	18
2024	0	0
2025	0	0
2026	3	13

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

No rain expected in the coming days↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
A dry month (25 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon8°

Tue6°

Wed2°

Thu5°

Fri0°

Sat−2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.2 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid October

Onset: early March
Peak: early March
End: mid October

Critical windows

late February – mid March
60% of annual activity
late April – late May
10% of annual activity
late June – late June
4% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −40%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.46). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.11).

Unusual years

4

2018
6
peak 26× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 18 weeks early
2021
9
peak 47× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 34 weeks early
2023
9
peak 47× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 34 weeks early
2026
3
peak 16× stronger than normal
season began 37 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson