Big Arm No. 251

Next 7 daysLow17%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201558
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +49%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	14	1
2002	7	1
2003	16	6
2004	3	0
2005	13	7
2006	11	7
2007	10	6
2008	9	4
2009	4	0
2010	17	9
2011	7	4
2012	13	13
2013	11	11
2014	12	12
2015	58	58
2016	22	22
2017	32	32
2018	11	28
2019	6	11
2020	14	26
2021	6	17
2022	5	5
2023	8	8
2024	1	2
2025	9	15
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 23 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.0 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~18 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid October
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
43% of annual activity
early October – early November
42% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +49%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.5× its earlier level (p 0.005). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

13

2002
7
season ended 17 weeks early
2003
16
season began 21 weeks late
2004
3
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
4
season ended 3 weeks late
2010
17
season began 5 weeks early
2012
13
season began 21 weeks late
2015
58
5.3× the normal annual activity
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
2016
22
season began 3 weeks early
2018
11
season began 3 weeks late
2019
6
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks late
2021
6
season began 24 weeks late
2022
5
season began 23 weeks late
2023
8
season ended 23 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson