Lipton No. 217

Next 7 daysModerate39%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid September – early November
Record year: 201760
Trend: −22%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +44%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	49	15
2002	28	9
2003	54	32
2004	11	4
2005	49	22
2006	33	15
2007	21	12
2008	31	20
2009	7	6
2010	22	14
2011	23	14
2012	9	9
2013	21	21
2014	21	21
2015	52	52
2016	15	15
2017	60	60
2018	16	32
2019	15	23
2020	55	116
2021	30	66
2022	8	17
2023	45	71
2024	28	52
2025	9	13
2026	7	17

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.72×

Raw data

2.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 1.4
Rank: 15 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.72×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.0

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
A dry month (14 mm)↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.0 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.1 expected · usual 0.9

likely 0.0–3.6 · usual 0.0–2.3

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~11 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: mid October
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid September – early November
48% of annual activity
mid April – late May
41% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −22%/10Raw: +44%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.0× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.92).

Unusual years

12

2002
27
season ended 18 weeks early
2005
49
season ended 5 weeks early
2006
33
season ended 3 weeks early
2009
7
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2010
22
season began 4 weeks early
2012
9
season began 4 weeks late
2016
15
season ended 3 weeks late
2019
15
season ended 22 weeks early
2022
8
season began 4 weeks late
2023
45
season began 20 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
9
season began 18 weeks late
2026
7
season began 24 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson