Souris Valley No. 7

Next 7 daysLow9%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late July – late August
Record year: 2015239
Trend: −33%/ 10significant · on raw data: +32%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	52	5
2002	41	2
2003	39	2
2004	32	1
2005	57	11
2006	48	6
2007	46	6
2008	34	1
2009	40	5
2010	33	0
2011	48	8
2012	11	11
2013	36	36
2014	187	187
2015	239	239
2016	17	17
2017	14	14
2018	30	53
2019	8	17
2020	27	75
2021	31	65
2022	12	26
2023	10	16
2024	9	14
2025	19	29
2026	11	55

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun11°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed5°

Thu3°

Fri3°

Sat2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 1.2

likely 0.0–3.8 · usual 0.0–2.1

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid October

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid August
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late July – late August
18% of annual activity
late April – late May
17% of annual activity
early September – mid September
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −33%/10Raw: +32%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 12.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.002): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2013
36
season began 10 weeks late
2014
187
5.7× the normal annual activity
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
2015
239
7.3× the normal annual activity
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season ended 7 weeks early
2016
17
season ended 6 weeks late
2018
30
season began 9 weeks late
2019
8
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks early
2023
10
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 14 weeks early
2024
9
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson