Lumsden No. 189

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season: last week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201726
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +51%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	9	1
2002	11	3
2003	3	1
2004	2	1
2005	6	4
2006	3	0
2007	5	2
2008	5	2
2009	6	5
2010	3	0
2011	6	4
2012	6	6
2013	4	4
2014	10	10
2015	23	23
2016	16	16
2017	26	26
2018	3	6
2019	4	9
2020	16	27
2021	8	16
2022	0	0
2023	1	7
2024	1	9
2025	1	2
2026	2	5

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.4

likely 0.0–1.4 · usual 0.0–0.5

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
56% of annual activity
mid October – early November
20% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +51%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.5× its earlier level (p 0.010). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

10

2002
11
season ended 15 weeks early
2012
6
season ended 14 weeks early
2013
4
season began 6 weeks late
2016
16
season ended 15 weeks late
2017
26
peak 5.8× stronger than normal
2019
4
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early
2023
1
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2024
1
season began 16 weeks late
2025
1
season ended 26 weeks early
2026
2
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson