Montreal Lake 106

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid June – mid July
Record year: 2015244
Trend: −4%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	0
2002	19	5
2003	1	0
2004	1	0
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	5	2
2008	1	0
2009	1	1
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	0	0
2013	1	1
2014	0	0
2015	244	244
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	0	1
2019	0	0
2020	0	0
2021	9	16
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	1	1
2025	7	12
2026	0	2

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 11 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

No rain expected in the coming days↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
A dry month (22 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon8°

Tue6°

Wed2°

Thu5°

Fri0°

Sat−2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~17 May
Peak ~28 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid May – late June

Onset: mid May
Peak: late June
End: late June

Critical windows

mid June – mid July
84% of annual activity
early April – late May
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −4%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 1.00). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.11).

Unusual years

7

2002
19
17× the normal annual activity
peak 76× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2007
5
peak 19× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2013
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early
2015
244
224× the normal annual activity
peak 1,165× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early
2021
9
peak 34× stronger than normal
season ended 18 weeks early
2024
1
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 31 weeks early
2025
7
peak 14× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson