Willow Bunch No. 42

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – mid June
Record year: 20169
Trend: −11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	0
2002	1	0
2003	1	0
2004	1	0
2005	1	3
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	5	2
2009	1	0
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	0	0
2013	0	0
2014	5	5
2015	1	1
2016	9	9
2017	0	0
2018	5	8
2019	0	0
2020	3	7
2021	4	5
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	0	0
2025	2	2
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (8 mm)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun10°

Mon13°

Tue9°

Wed4°

Thu1°

Fri1°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~26 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late September

Onset: mid April
Peak: late April
End: late September

Critical windows

mid April – mid June
81% of annual activity
mid September – early October
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −11%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.26). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.95).

Unusual years

8

2008
5
peak 10× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2014
5
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early
2015
1
season began 11 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2016
9
peak 22× stronger than normal
season ended 24 weeks early
2018
5
peak 5.6× stronger than normal
2020
3
peak 8.4× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2021
4
peak 5.6× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2025
2
peak 5.6× stronger than normal
season began 23 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson