Edenwold No. 158

Next 7 daysModerate39%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – early November
Record year: 201567
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +38%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	15	1
2002	9	1
2003	25	17
2004	14	11
2005	23	14
2006	16	8
2007	9	5
2008	14	8
2009	17	9
2010	7	4
2011	6	2
2012	8	8
2013	18	18
2014	22	22
2015	67	67
2016	33	33
2017	23	23
2018	8	19
2019	7	12
2020	15	35
2021	7	16
2022	6	10
2023	7	9
2024	24	43
2025	11	16
2026	1	11

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 0.9
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.2 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.2 expected · usual 2.5

likely 0.0–5.6 · usual 0.0–2.4

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late September – early November
42% of annual activity
mid April – late May
39% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +38%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.4× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.36).

Unusual years

10

2003
25
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2012
8
season ended 5 weeks early
2015
67
4.6× the normal annual activity
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
2016
33
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
2019
7
season began 3 weeks early
2021
7
season began 25 weeks late
2022
6
season began 3 weeks late
2023
7
season ended 8 weeks late
2024
24
season began 5 weeks late
2025
11
season began 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson