South Qu'Appelle No. 157

Next 7 daysModerate26%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – early November
Record year: 201670
Trend: −17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +32%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	38	12
2002	9	1
2003	25	18
2004	13	8
2005	51	33
2006	22	15
2007	25	16
2008	63	30
2009	10	6
2010	13	6
2011	5	2
2012	8	8
2013	17	17
2014	31	31
2015	60	60
2016	70	70
2017	60	60
2018	12	27
2019	8	15
2020	20	55
2021	13	23
2022	3	4
2023	4	11
2024	15	34
2025	16	33
2026	4	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 3.0
Rank: 22 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.8

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.8 expected · usual 0.5

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.2 expected · usual 1.0

likely 0.0–3.9 · usual 0.0–2.6

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late September – early November
42% of annual activity
mid April – late May
38% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −17%/10Raw: +32%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.06). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.21).

Unusual years

13

2001
38
season began 3 weeks late
2004
13
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2008
63
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
2009
10
season ended 4 weeks late
2013
17
season began 3 weeks late
2015
60
peak 3.9× stronger than normal
2016
70
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
2018
12
season began 3 weeks late
2019
8
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks late
2022
3
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 10 weeks early
2023
4
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks late
2024
15
season began 5 weeks early
2026
4
season began 7 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson