Dufferin No. 190

Next 7 daysLow10%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201647
Trend: +8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +50%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	16	2
2002	21	4
2003	9	3
2004	4	1
2005	21	13
2006	9	3
2007	5	3
2008	10	3
2009	4	0
2010	4	1
2011	8	2
2012	3	3
2013	6	6
2014	6	6
2015	29	29
2016	47	47
2017	13	13
2018	17	38
2019	19	43
2020	25	35
2021	27	43
2022	16	34
2023	3	4
2024	8	14
2025	6	12
2026	1	5

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.4

likely 0.0–1.4 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
50% of annual activity
late September – early November
28% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +8%/10Raw: +50%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 7.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.19).

Unusual years

12

2002
21
season ended 18 weeks early
2012
3
season began 25 weeks late
2013
6
season began 11 weeks late
2014
6
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2016
47
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
2017
13
season ended 9 weeks early
2019
19
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 25 weeks early
2021
27
season began 3 weeks early
2022
16
season began 17 weeks late
2023
3
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks early
2024
8
season began 24 weeks late
2025
6
season began 25 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson