Norton No. 69

Next 7 daysLow2%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – late May
Record year: 201527
Trend: −44%/ 10significant · on raw data: +17%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3	0
2002	9	2
2003	6	3
2004	2	0
2005	17	4
2006	14	4
2007	7	2
2008	9	2
2009	3	0
2010	6	2
2011	6	2
2012	1	1
2013	5	5
2014	6	6
2015	27	27
2016	9	9
2017	4	4
2018	5	10
2019	4	5
2020	1	7
2021	4	5
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	0	0
2025	3	3
2026	4	12

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 36.4×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.9
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 4 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.1–0.7 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Critical windows

early April – late May
72% of annual activity
late October – early November
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −44%/10Raw: +17%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.13). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2005
17
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
2006
14
peak 3.4× stronger than normal
2015
27
5.4× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
2018
5
season began 13 weeks late
season ended 25 weeks late
2021
4
season began 6 weeks early
2025
3
season began 27 weeks late
2026
4
season began 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson