Last Mountain Valley No. 250

Next 7 daysModerate26%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201559
Trend: −21%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +38%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	24	4
2002	16	0
2003	24	11
2004	10	1
2005	36	25
2006	24	16
2007	42	23
2008	23	13
2009	24	12
2010	26	14
2011	28	17
2012	18	18
2013	13	13
2014	13	13
2015	59	59
2016	38	38
2017	53	53
2018	23	47
2019	28	44
2020	25	40
2021	12	24
2022	13	25
2023	6	18
2024	12	22
2025	6	16
2026	1	14

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.5
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.5

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.5 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.4 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–1.8 · usual 0.0–1.3

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
41% of annual activity
late September – early November
40% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −21%/10Raw: +38%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 2.7× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.09).

Unusual years

10

2002
16
season ended 14 weeks early
2004
10
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
24
season ended 3 weeks late
2011
28
season began 3 weeks late
2012
18
season began 6 weeks late
2015
59
peak 3.1× stronger than normal
2019
28
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 21 weeks early
2021
12
season began 4 weeks early
2023
6
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2025
6
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 19 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson