Sherwood No. 159

Next 7 daysLow18%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late April – late May
Record year: 201526
Trend: −24%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	13	5
2002	4	3
2003	3	1
2004	14	10
2005	7	7
2006	7	9
2007	10	9
2008	9	8
2009	3	3
2010	6	9
2011	6	6
2012	2	2
2013	13	13
2014	9	9
2015	26	26
2016	20	20
2017	24	24
2018	1	2
2019	6	8
2020	2	6
2021	1	3
2022	1	1
2023	1	2
2024	3	6
2025	6	9
2026	13	43

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
A dry month (16 mm)↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 0.4

likely 0.0–1.6 · usual 0.0–0.5

Season

Starts ~3 May
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – early November

Onset: early May
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late April – late May
39% of annual activity
late September – mid November
34% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −24%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.40). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.01): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2004
14
season began 6 weeks early
2008
9
season began 6 weeks late
2012
2
season ended 17 weeks early
2013
13
season ended 7 weeks early
2015
26
peak 6.9× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2017
24
peak 6.2× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2018
1
season began 23 weeks late
2021
1
season ended 18 weeks early
2022
1
season began 27 weeks late
2023
1
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks early
2024
3
season began 9 weeks early
season ended 15 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson