Lake Alma No. 8

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201529
Trend: −17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +46%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	0
2002	7	0
2003	5	1
2004	3	0
2005	5	0
2006	6	1
2007	5	0
2008	5	1
2009	4	1
2010	4	1
2011	4	0
2012	2	2
2013	2	2
2014	15	15
2015	29	29
2016	9	9
2017	8	8
2018	2	11
2019	7	7
2020	18	24
2021	6	12
2022	0	1
2023	0	0
2024	4	5
2025	3	5
2026	3	6

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

This year is more active than normal↑
A dry month (6 mm)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun11°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed5°

Thu3°

Fri3°

Sat2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~26 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early October

Onset: mid April
Peak: late April
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
39% of annual activity
late July – early August
12% of annual activity
mid September – late September
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −17%/10Raw: +46%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 20.4× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

12

2012
2
season began 13 weeks late
2013
2
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2014
15
3.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2015
29
6.2× the normal annual activity
peak 8.8× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
2016
9
peak 5.8× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks late
2017
8
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2018
2
season began 12 weeks late
2020
18
3.8× the normal annual activity
peak 8.8× stronger than normal
2021
6
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2024
4
season began 25 weeks late
2025
3
season began 6 weeks early
2026
3
season ended 22 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson