Azerbaijan

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 15 weeks left · 0.3× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 20158,290
Trend: −26%/ 10significant · on raw data: +82%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7775	1202
2002	7125	1708
2003	5850	1519
2004	8142	2278
2005	4581	1103
2006	6038	1672
2007	4139	1049
2008	4290	1028
2009	3969	959
2010	6858	1653
2011	4908	1296
2012	4240	4105
2013	4761	4761
2014	3456	3456
2015	8290	8290
2016	5415	5415
2017	5862	5862
2018	4651	9054
2019	7824	14904
2020	4344	8624
2021	4533	9208
2022	4052	8092
2023	2047	4199
2024	1866	5834
2025	4050	11764
2026	2802	8740

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.15×

Raw data

0.47×

usual = 1×

This month: 7.2
Usual (median): 48
Rank: 24 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~8.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑

Sun19°

Mon11°

Tue9°

Wed13°

Thu15°

Fri17°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week4.4

This week is more active than 16% of past years at this time

Year to date2,802

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 4,617

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~8.4 expected · usual 52

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~230 expected · usual 487

likely 33–1,149 · usual 0.0–1,017

Season

Ends ~22 February
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – late February

Onset: late June
Peak: mid July
End: late February

Critical windows

late June – mid September
61% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +82%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.13).

Unusual years

10

2001
7,775
1.7× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks early
2004
8,142
1.8× the normal annual activity
2010
6,858
season ended 10 weeks early
2015
8,290
1.8× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 22 weeks early
2018
4,651
season ended 18 weeks early
2019
7,824
1.7× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks early
2021
4,533
season began 4 weeks early
2023
2,047
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2024
1,866
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2026
2,802
only 0.6× the normal annual activity

Districts and provinces

78

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Azerbaijan

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 15 weeks left · 0.3× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 20158,290
Trend: −26%/ 10significant · on raw data: +82%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7775	1202
2002	7125	1708
2003	5850	1519
2004	8142	2278
2005	4581	1103
2006	6038	1672
2007	4139	1049
2008	4290	1028
2009	3969	959
2010	6858	1653
2011	4908	1296
2012	4240	4105
2013	4761	4761
2014	3456	3456
2015	8290	8290
2016	5415	5415
2017	5862	5862
2018	4651	9054
2019	7824	14904
2020	4344	8624
2021	4533	9208
2022	4052	8092
2023	2047	4199
2024	1866	5834
2025	4050	11764
2026	2802	8740

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.15×

Raw data

0.47×

usual = 1×

This month: 7.2
Usual (median): 48
Rank: 24 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~8.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑

Sun19°

Mon11°

Tue9°

Wed13°

Thu15°

Fri17°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week4.4

This week is more active than 16% of past years at this time

Year to date2,802

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 4,617

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~8.4 expected · usual 52

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~230 expected · usual 487

likely 33–1,149 · usual 0.0–1,017

Season

Ends ~22 February
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – late February

Onset: late June
Peak: mid July
End: late February

Critical windows

late June – mid September
61% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +82%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.13).

Unusual years

10

2001
7,775
1.7× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks early
2004
8,142
1.8× the normal annual activity
2010
6,858
season ended 10 weeks early
2015
8,290
1.8× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 22 weeks early
2018
4,651
season ended 18 weeks early
2019
7,824
1.7× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks early
2021
4,533
season began 4 weeks early
2023
2,047
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2024
1,866
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2026
2,802
only 0.6× the normal annual activity

Districts and provinces

78

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson