Imishli District

Next 7 daysLow7%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late January

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – early April
Record year: 2020164
Trend: +34%/ 10significant · on raw data: +95%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	71	6
2002	60	7
2003	40	4
2004	57	8
2005	45	6
2006	60	11
2007	89	27
2008	55	12
2009	74	22
2010	61	14
2011	81	18
2012	152	149
2013	89	89
2014	100	100
2015	54	54
2016	67	67
2017	102	102
2018	65	127
2019	73	149
2020	164	309
2021	44	88
2022	156	310
2023	151	322
2024	85	285
2025	164	466
2026	90	292

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (4.7 m/s)↑
Humid air (68%)↓

Sun24°

Mon14°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date90

#8 of 26 yearsNormal: 69

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.6

Next 3 months

About usual

~7.4 expected · usual 6.9

likely 1.6–27 · usual 0.0–20

Season

Starts ~25 January
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late January – mid September

Onset: late January
Peak: early March
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – early April
44% of annual activity
late June – late June
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +34%/10Raw: +95%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 15.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.08).

Unusual years

8

2012
152
2.1× the normal annual activity
season ended 12 weeks early
2014
100
season ended 13 weeks early
2017
102
season ended 10 weeks early
2020
164
2.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks early
2021
44
season ended 9 weeks late
2022
156
2.1× the normal annual activity
2023
151
2.1× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks early
2025
164
2.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Imishli District

Next 7 daysLow7%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late January

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – early April
Record year: 2020164
Trend: +34%/ 10significant · on raw data: +95%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	71	6
2002	60	7
2003	40	4
2004	57	8
2005	45	6
2006	60	11
2007	89	27
2008	55	12
2009	74	22
2010	61	14
2011	81	18
2012	152	149
2013	89	89
2014	100	100
2015	54	54
2016	67	67
2017	102	102
2018	65	127
2019	73	149
2020	164	309
2021	44	88
2022	156	310
2023	151	322
2024	85	285
2025	164	466
2026	90	292

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (4.7 m/s)↑
Humid air (68%)↓

Sun24°

Mon14°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date90

#8 of 26 yearsNormal: 69

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.6

Next 3 months

About usual

~7.4 expected · usual 6.9

likely 1.6–27 · usual 0.0–20

Season

Starts ~25 January
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late January – mid September

Onset: late January
Peak: early March
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – early April
44% of annual activity
late June – late June
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +34%/10Raw: +95%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 15.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.08).

Unusual years

8

2012
152
2.1× the normal annual activity
season ended 12 weeks early
2014
100
season ended 13 weeks early
2017
102
season ended 10 weeks early
2020
164
2.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks early
2021
44
season ended 9 weeks late
2022
156
2.1× the normal annual activity
2023
151
2.1× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks early
2025
164
2.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson