Kangarli District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – late April
Record year: 20079
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3	0
2002	3	0
2003	3	0
2004	3	0
2005	9	3
2006	6	1
2007	9	3
2008	3	0
2009	3	0
2010	3	0
2011	3	0
2012	3	3
2013	7	7
2014	1	1
2015	0	0
2016	1	1
2017	8	8
2018	3	5
2019	1	7
2020	0	0
2021	4	7
2022	4	4
2023	7	18
2024	3	8
2025	6	20
2026	3	12

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun15°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date3

#17 of 26 yearsNormal: 3

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~22 February
Peak ~22 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late February – late September

Onset: late February
Peak: late March
End: late September

Critical windows

mid February – late April
61% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 7.2× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

12

2005
9
2.7× the normal annual activity
season ended 10 weeks early
2007
9
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 6.3× stronger than normal
season ended 9 weeks early
2012
3
season ended 24 weeks early
2013
7
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2014
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 30 weeks early
2016
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 26 weeks early
2017
8
2.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks early
2018
3
season ended 14 weeks early
2019
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks early
2021
4
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2023
7
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
2025
6
1.9× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Kangarli District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – late April
Record year: 20079
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3	0
2002	3	0
2003	3	0
2004	3	0
2005	9	3
2006	6	1
2007	9	3
2008	3	0
2009	3	0
2010	3	0
2011	3	0
2012	3	3
2013	7	7
2014	1	1
2015	0	0
2016	1	1
2017	8	8
2018	3	5
2019	1	7
2020	0	0
2021	4	7
2022	4	4
2023	7	18
2024	3	8
2025	6	20
2026	3	12

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun15°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date3

#17 of 26 yearsNormal: 3

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~22 February
Peak ~22 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late February – late September

Onset: late February
Peak: late March
End: late September

Critical windows

mid February – late April
61% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 7.2× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

12

2005
9
2.7× the normal annual activity
season ended 10 weeks early
2007
9
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 6.3× stronger than normal
season ended 9 weeks early
2012
3
season ended 24 weeks early
2013
7
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2014
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 30 weeks early
2016
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 26 weeks early
2017
8
2.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks early
2018
3
season ended 14 weeks early
2019
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks early
2021
4
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2023
7
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
2025
6
1.9× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson